We take the ballots cast so far, scale them to a full electorate county by county, and apply how each county voted in 2022 and 2024. Pick a race, move the slider, and watch the map and the totals change.
Competitive counties move the most and lopsided ones the least. The result is a scenario, not a forecast.
Turnout changes the vote counts and the number needed for a majority. It does not change the shares.
Hover over the map or pick a county to see its projected votes.
Three things stand out in the first three days of early voting.
Georgians cast 188,667 in-person votes on day one, about 40% more than the first day of 2022. By Thursday afternoon the lead over the same weekday in 2022 had shrunk to roughly 20%, which points to a final early total close to 2022's.
Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett and Clayton hold 38.9% of ballots so far, against 38.5% of the 2022 early vote. The map is not tilting toward the core or away from it.
Democrats cast 1.09 million primary ballots to the Republicans' 0.94 million. In 2022 Republicans led by roughly 26 points. That is the strongest sign that the mood has moved, though a primary electorate is not the November electorate.
The Base scenario comes from the primary. The poll-based scenario comes from recent polling. The vertical line follows your slider setting.
| Poll | Senate | Governor | Notes |
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Traders on Kalshi put real money on who wins. We read the price as the market's chance for each candidate and compare it with our model and the polls on one scale.
Prices are normalized so the two candidates add to 100. A thin market can move on a single trade, so the 7-day average is the better guide.
| View | Margin | Chance the Democrat wins | How we got it |
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To compare a margin with a probability we assume the true result could land about 4 points either side of any estimate. That is our assumption, and the methodology page shows how the comparison changes if it is 3 or 5. A price is not a guarantee, and markets can be wrong. See the live market on Kalshi. This is not betting or investment advice.
Each line shows cumulative in-person early ballots by day of early voting. Hover over the chart to compare any day.
Weekday-aligned: 2026 started on a Tuesday and 2022 on a Monday, so 2026 day 4 is compared with 2022 day 5.
Democratic primary turnout rose by about half from 2022 and Republican turnout fell by about a quarter. Our Base scenario carries 15% of that swing into November.
2022 primary totals are derived from the reported percentage changes, so treat them as approximate. In 2022 Stacey Abrams had no primary opponent, and in 2026 Jon Ossoff had none, which affects both parties' turnout.
Projected final votes and margins for the race and scenario you chose above. Click a row to see it on the map.
Four steps, all from public data. The full formulas, checks and sources are on the Methodology page.
We take ballots accepted in each of Georgia's 159 counties from the Secretary of State's dashboard, as of the time stamp at the top.
Each county's count is scaled by how much of its 2022 vote came early versus later, so Election Day-heavy counties grow more.
We start from each county's 2022 result and add half of how it has moved against the state since, using 2024.
A statewide shift, spread most heavily over competitive counties, comes from the May primary and the polls.
Mail ballots were 6% of the 2022 vote and leaned heavily Democratic. If fewer arrive this year, each point of share is worth about 0.4 points of margin.
Election Day voters leaned Republican by about 10 points statewide in 2022. If that gap narrows or widens, the result moves with it.
We assume 15% of the primary swing reaches November. At 10% the Senate margin is about 5.9 points and at 20% it is about 9.3. The governor's race crosses zero between 15% and 20%.
Georgia requires 50% plus one vote. Either race can end near that line, and a runoff would follow about four weeks later.
Early voting runs through Oct 30. Each time new ballot counts are published we rerun the projection and update the time stamp at the top of this page. Add a daily reminder and you will not miss one.
The reminder repeats daily at 6 PM Eastern through Election Day.
